Unexpected setbacks in domestic competition leave PSV Eindhoven with no choice but to secure a victory in their upcoming Champions League clash, as they travel away to face Red Star Belgrade. The Dutch champions are adept at controlling matches with their aggressive style of play, while the team from Belgrade consistently allow numerous chances in front of their own goal.
Red Star Belgrade's defeat to AC Milan (1:2) in the sixth round of the Champions League group stage marked their fifth loss in the competition. In this season's Champions League campaign, they have conceded 19 goals—only Slovan Bratislava (21) and Young Boys (22) have allowed more. The past month has seen them in friendly mode, with no official matches, making it unlikely Red Star Belgrade will deliver their best football against the high-intensity style of their opponent.
Despite a setback against PEC Zwolle (1:3) on Saturday, PSV Eindhoven remain Eredivisie leaders, holding a one-point edge over Ajax. Domestically, they score more frequently than any other team (62 goals in 19 matches) and defend at a top-three level (18 goals conceded). In their previous away outing against Stade Brestois (0:1) in the sixth round, the team lacked shot efficiency. Despite that, the defending Eredivisie champions controlled the game with 67% possession and generated 1.58 xG—similar metrics in Belgrade should suffice for a victory.
Red Star Belgrade's less than reliable defence will allow PSV Eindhoven to remain a threat for the full 90 minutes. We're backing a win for the visitors.
